Natalija Stepurko

Scientific machine-learning researcher and computational structural biologist

I study what molecular and materials foundation models encode, where that information appears through network depth, and whether it carries beyond what they were trained to predict. Before this I did a Cambridge PhD modelling flexible proteins with molecular dynamics and synchrotron data, and co-founded and led two deep-tech startups.

PhDBiochemistry, University of Cambridge · Herchel Smith Scholar
2 startupsCo-founded and led as CEO · Managed £500K budgets
10 yearsof wet-lab and computational biology, from cancer drug targets to developmental signalling
Representation probingSpotlight talk, AI4Mat workshop, NeurIPS 2026; also accepted at AI4Sci
At a glance

Projects and their outputs

ProjectModels & toolsContextOutputs
Where Material-Property Information Resides in Frozen Interatomic PotentialsORB-v3 · UMA-S · XGBoost & linear probes · PyTorchSpotlight · AI4Mat, NeurIPS 2026 · also AI4Scipaper, code and datasets public on 9 November 2026
Where does BioEmu-1 fail against solution scattering, and what should be measured next?BioEmu-1 · SAXS · max-entropy reweighting · scikit-learnProteins · experimental designResultsCode
Do a sequence model and a structure model learn the same biology?ESM-2 · ProteinMPNN · CKA · SVCCA · PyTorchProteins · representation convergenceResultsCodeData
Do foundation-model representations uncover clinically useful biology that a linear model misses?scGPT · Geneformer · HVG-PCA · Scanpy · Cox modelsSingle-cell biology · foundation-model evaluationResultsCode
When is a probe score trustworthy under limited data?ORB-v3 · UMA-S · Magpie · XGBoost · cross-validationMaterials · statistics of small dataResultsCode
Molecular insights into signalling mechanisms within the TGF-β superfamilySEC-SAXS · BilboMD MD ensembles · DENSS · MODELLER · BLI · ITCPhD in Biochemistry · University of CambridgeThesisAbstract
Selected research · 2026

Recent projects

Materials · representation probingSpotlight talk · AI4Mat, NeurIPS 2026 · also accepted at AI4Sci

Where Material-Property Information Resides in Frozen Interatomic Potentials

Finding

Different out-of-training properties are most accessible at different network depths and through different representation components.

Machine-learning interatomic potentials are trained only on energies, forces and stresses. I probed the frozen, layer-wise embeddings of two architecturally opposite models, ORB-v3 and UMA-S, across 154,875 Materials Project structures and nine properties. Properties absent from the training objective are recoverable, with substantial improvements over composition-only descriptors for several targets, e.g. band-gap R² rises from 0.698 with Magpie to 0.890 with ORB-v3 and 0.907 with UMA-S. Local and additive properties, including density and bulk modulus, tend to be most decodable in early representations, whereas band gap and metal/insulator character benefit from deeper layers. The equivariant UMA-S angular channels give it a clear edge on crystal-system classification.

MethodFrozen forward passes cached per layer · gradient-boosted and linear probes · Magpie composition-only baseline · permutation and shuffled-label controls · unsupervised clustering set against supervised decodability
Data154,875 Materials Project crystal structuresPyTorchequivariant & non-equivariant GNNsfrozen-embedding extraction, 155k structuresXGBoost & ridge probesscikit-learnpymatgen · matminerUMAP · HDBSCANbootstrap CIs · permutation nulls
35–76%reduction in prediction error vs. a composition-only baseline on six of nine properties (ORB-v3 35–73%, UMA-S 41–76%)
5 / 9probed properties that never appear in the training objective yet decode
Physical error, not R²R² 0.95 on energy above hull still misses the 67 meV/atom stability window, while R² 0.84 on magnetism is ample for flagging candidates: budget an application from σ·√(1−R²) in the task's own units
Smooth, not clusteredsupervised decodability exceeds unsupervised organisation on every property; clusters track element identity (ARI up to 0.99), not properties (ARI ≈ 0.01)
crystalstructure frozen MLIP · one forward pass · no gradients L0L1L2L3 energy · forcestraining objective embembembemb extract probeprobeprobeprobe train properties predict
Paper, code and datasets public on 9 November 2026
Proteins · generative models · experimental designPublic write-up + code

Where does BioEmu-1 fail against solution scattering, and what should be measured next?

Finding

BioEmu-1's disordered protein ensembles are systematically too extended, but the model's errors cannot yet be predicted reliably enough to guide new experimental measurements.

I benchmarked raw BioEmu-1 conformational ensembles against 399 experimental SAXS profiles, comparing predicted and measured protein sizes, using maximum-entropy reweighting to characterise discrepancies, and testing six alternative protein models. Only 37% of raw ensembles met the SAXS fit threshold. For disordered proteins, predicted radii of gyration were 21% too large at the median, a discrepancy confirmed directly in the sampled conformer coordinates.

I then tested whether sequence and ensemble features could predict these errors before measurement. Under grouped cross-validation, the best model explained only 5% of their variation, and an experimental acquisition policy performed no clearly better than random selection. The resulting two-arm campaign prioritises controlled replication of known failures and an independent test of the disordered-protein extension bias.

MethodRaw ensemble benchmarking · SAXS forward-model comparison · maximum-entropy reweighting · bootstrap confidence intervals · sequence-grouped cross-validation · retrospective acquisition-policy evaluation · experimental campaign design
Data399 SASBDB SAXS profiles with BioEmu-1 ensembles (PeptoneBench archive)Python · NumPy · SciPyscikit-learnBioEmu-1Pepsi-SAXSDENSSSAXS
37%of 399 raw BioEmu-1 ensembles meet the SAXS fit threshold
21%larger radius of gyration than measured for disordered proteins (median)
5%of BioEmu-1’s error can be predicted before measuring from sequence and model features, on held-out proteins (R² = 0.05)
SASDLK9 · disordered protein, 475 residuesmeasured SAXS profile and three model fitsenvelope from data0.020.060.10q (Å⁻¹)ln I(q)BioEmu-1 · χ² 8.9reweighted · χ² 1.8AlphaFold2 · χ² 116measuredRg data 72 ÅBioEmu-1 78 Å
The raw BioEmu-1 ensemble is larger than the protein in solution; reweighting to the data brings it closer. Right: envelope reconstructed from the measured profile, with the top-weighted conformer.
Proteins · representation convergencePublic write-up + code

Do a sequence model and a structure model learn the same biology?

Finding

About half of the apparent agreement is the amino-acid identity both models are trained to output; with it removed, the two families do not arrange proteins the same way and are not interchangeable in function.

ESM-2 reads only the amino-acid sequence; ProteinMPNN reads only backbone coordinates. If sequence and shape are two views of one biology, the two should converge. Across 4,898 proteins and 1,374,765 residues I compared their layer-wise representations with CKA, SVCCA and mutual k-NN, bounded by an untrained floor and a same-model-different-seed ceiling. The strongest raw "agreement" sits at the sequence model's embedding layer, which is simply the amino-acid identity both models are trained to output. Subtracting the per-residue-type mean removes that shared answer key and reveals what remains: the two families line up along some of the same directions but do not arrange proteins the same way, and the structure model’s representation does not survive the sequence model’s layers intact, most clearly when it enters early: the two are not interchangeable in function.

MethodSix models, two families · CKA / SVCCA / mutual k-NN · amino-acid-identity residualisation · untrained and seed-pair controls · representation stitching · property probes on the residuals
Dataprotein sequences + backbone structures · 4,898 proteinsPyTorchtransformers & message passing (ESM-2, ProteinMPNN, ESM-IF1)fair-esm · biotiteCKA · SVCCA · mutual k-NNpermutation nulls · residualisationmodel stitchingUMAP · HDBSCAN
1.000SVCCA between ESM-2's first layer and the amino acid identity: at that depth the representation is nothing but the amino acid code, so agreement measured there is the shared training target, not shared biology
0.27 → 0.11 → 0.19raw agreement with the structure model across ESM-2's depth: highest at the input, lowest in the middle layers, rising again at the output, where the model returns to predicting amino acids
0 → 0.06 → 0.10the same agreement after subtracting amino-acid identity: nothing left at the input, which held only the amino-acid code; low in the middle layers; highest near the output, 0.14 at block 11
Convergence (CKA) of ESM-2 (sequence)and ProteinMPNN (structure)before and after subtracting the amino-acid identitythat both models are trained to predictSame model, two random seeds (ceiling)0.8490.849ESM-2 × ProteinMPNN0.2580.131Untrained sequence × trained structure (floor)0.2050.038as measuredafter removing amino-acid identity
Single-cell biology · foundation-model evaluationPublic write-up + code

Do foundation-model representations uncover clinically useful biology that a linear model misses?

Finding

Cell states from scGPT and Geneformer predict breast-cancer survival no better than states from a linear HVG-PCA baseline, in TCGA and in an independent METABRIC replication.

I defined cell states in a 50,002-cell breast-cancer atlas using scGPT, Geneformer and an HVG-PCA baseline, turned each state into a marker-gene signature, and asked whether those signatures predict survival in 1,094 TCGA breast tumours. Every representation went through the same clustering, marker selection and bulk-scoring pipeline; winner selection was tested against a family-wise permutation null and random gene sets matched for size and expression.

Neither foundation model cleared the pre-specified family-wise null, neither gained more prognostic signal above its random-gene floor than HVG-PCA, and adding the selected states to age and stage changed the cross-validated C-index by essentially zero. With the signatures fixed before METABRIC outcomes were examined, all eight foundation-model-minus-baseline margins were negative in 1,979 METABRIC patients.

MethodSame cells, three representations · Leiden states at three resolutions · marker-gene signatures · TCGA discovery · family-wise outcome permutations · expression-matched random-gene floors · selection-aware bootstrap · nested cross-validation · frozen-signature replication in METABRIC
Datasingle-cell RNA-seq, 50,002 cells from 152 donors · bulk tumour RNA-seq with survival, 1,094 TCGA patients · microarray with survival, 1,979 METABRIC patientsscGPT · Geneformer · HVG-PCAScanpysurvival analysis · Cox modelspermutation testsbootstrapnested CVTCGA · METABRIC
0 / 2foundation models with a pre-specified prognostic advantage over HVG-PCA
−0.021 / −0.039scGPT / Geneformer margins over the baseline in C-index, after subtracting each signature's matched-random gene floor
−0.002 to +0.001change in cross-validated C-index when the selected states are added to age + stage
8 / 8 negativefoundation-model-minus-baseline margins after freezing the signatures and replicating in METABRIC
Foundation model minus HVG-PCA baselineC-index above the random-gene floor, with 95% interval−0.08−0.040+0.04← baseline aheadTCGA · discoverypre-specifiedpost hocMETABRIC · OSpre-specifiedpost hocMETABRIC · DSSpre-specifiedpost hocscGPTGeneformer
Every margin is negative: the linear baseline stays ahead in TCGA, where the states were picked, and in all eight METABRIC comparisons, where the signatures were frozen.
Materials · statistics of small dataPublic write-up + code

When is a probe score trustworthy under limited data?

Finding

There is no universal minimum dataset size: at the same 5,000 training materials, the shortfall from the full-data score runs from 0.017 on formation energy to 0.128 on crystal system, and ORB-v3 and UMA-S agree on which properties need more data.

With limited data, a probe score can mislead in two separate ways. Too little training data leaves it below what the same probe reaches with more data (the shortfall); too little test data makes it move when the split is redrawn (the spread). I measured the two separately on frozen ORB-v3 and UMA-S embeddings over nine Materials Project properties, with composition-only Magpie features run on the same draws as a baseline. Every probe was scored on one frozen 20,000-material test set and compared with the full-data score from the probing study above.

Stability and sufficiency are different: band gap gives a reproducible score from 500 training materials but keeps rising until 7,000, where it comes within 0.05 of the full-data score. From 500 materials up the shortfall costs more than the spread, so the best split sits on the training side, and the usual 80/20 is within 0.004 of the best. Five-fold cross-validation gives the most accurate estimate of the score, but it cannot remove the shortfall, because each of its models still trains on 80% of the data.

MethodTraining and test size varied independently · 30 draws per training size up to 2,000, 200 per test size · one frozen 20,000-material test set · Magpie composition baseline on paired draws · split fractions read off the measured curves · single split, five averaged splits and 5-fold cross-validation compared on 20 datasets per combination
Data154,875 Materials Project crystal structuresORB-v3 · UMA-S · MagpieXGBoostexperimental designresampling & bootstrapcross-validationscikit-learn
7.7×gap in shortfall between the hardest and easiest property at 5,000 training materials; ORB-v3 and UMA-S agree within 0.029 on every property
80/20within 0.004 of the lowest total error from 500 materials up: beyond the smallest datasets, training data matters more than split noise
0.030 vs 0.053typical error of 5-fold cross-validation against a single split at 500 materials; it sharpens the estimate but does not close the shortfall
6 / 9properties on which both embeddings beat composition alone from 500 training materials or fewer; on magnetic density neither resolvably does
Shortfall at the same 5,000 training materialsscore lost below the full-data score, per property0.000.050.100.15formation energy0.019 · 0.014metal / insulator0.023 · 0.023magnetic / not0.034 · 0.026energy above hull0.072 · 0.043band gap0.061 · 0.057density0.062 · 0.063magnetic density0.114 · 0.103crystal system0.132 · 0.124ORB-v3UMA-SXGBoost probe
Research agenda

Three questions I keep coming back to

Depth · where knowledge livesMaterials probing project ↑

How does representation progress through depth, and which layer should we read from?

A network does not learn everything at once; it assembles some things layer by layer and discards others on the way to its output. In language and protein models the last layer is rarely the best place to read from (Valeriani et al., 2023; Skean et al., 2025; Joeres et al., 2026), and in interatomic potentials I found the knowledge organised by physical scale: additive properties are present at the input, local and geometric ones emerge in the first message-passing layers, and electronic ones only through depth. Which layers hold the most fundamental chemistry, physics and biology, which layers unlearn it, and whether the right embedding is one layer, a sum of layers or a truncated model are the questions that decide how these models get used as instruments.

Generalisation · out of training signalMaterials probing project ↑Single-cell project ↑

Do models learn the physics, chemistry and biology behind their data, or just memorise?

A model that predicts orbits perfectly can still fail to apply Newton's laws to a new problem (Vafa et al., 2025), and interatomic potentials trained on millions of molecules still make order-of-magnitude larger errors on compositions they have not met (Nourollah et al., 2026). Yet a protein language model has designed sequences with no natural relative that folded in the lab (Verkuil et al., 2022). The question I care about is whether we can trust a model's predictions for something that has never been discovered before.

Do models of different architectures arrive at a unified view of what they learned?

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (Huh et al., 2024) proposes that as models grow, they all drift towards one shared picture of reality, whatever their architecture or training data. However, Usama & Chang (2026) compared 16 language models and found representations converge while reasoning diverges: models agree most on problems they all get wrong. My own measurements say the same for science models. Two opposite interatomic potentials look alike at the input only because both are given the atomic number; what they share appears mid-network, and there they are interchangeable in function well before their embedding spaces look alike. For proteins, about half of the apparent agreement between a sequence and a structure model is the amino-acid identity both are trained to output; with it removed, they share some directions but almost none of each other’s neighbourhoods.

Background

Ten years of computational and experimental biology

PhD in Biochemistry · University of Cambridge2018 – 2023 · Herchel Smith Scholarship · Corpus Christi College

Molecular insights into signalling mechanisms within the TGF-β superfamily

Finding

Follistatin's C-terminal tail folds back onto its FS1 domain, and all three isoforms alternate between two solution conformations.

Experimental data-assisted protein modelling: I collected small-angle X-ray scattering data at synchrotron beamlines to characterise the solution structure, flexibility and oligomerisation of TGF-β superfamily proteins, and wrote custom Python pipelines for automated SAXS processing and downstream statistics.

  • Ab initio shape reconstruction, rigid-body modelling, homology modelling and MD simulation, tied back to biophysical binding assays.
  • Designed a bacterial assay for transmembrane-helix dimerisation of ALK receptors.
  • Talks at the S4SAS Diamond Light Source conference and the Herchel Smith symposia.
  • Supervised Cambridge undergraduates for four years (250+ hours) and designed a final-year research project that ranked top of its cohort.
DataSEC-SAXS scattering curves · SEC-MALS · binding kinetics and affinities (BLI, ITC, fluorescence polarisation, EMSA) · homology models and MD-generated conformer ensemblesSEC-SAXSATSAS: PRIMUS · GNOM · CRYSOL · MONSA · SUPCOMBDENSSBilboMD: SAXS-restrained MD · FoXS · minimal ensemble searchMODELLERPythonprotein engineeringbiophysicsprotein expression & purification
open · 65%closed · 35%
Two-state model of the longest isoform, FST315, selected against SEC-SAXS data. Yellow: heparan-sulphate binding site; pink and teal: the C-terminal tail, which in the closed state folds back over the protein.
Density heatmap of radius of gyration against maximum dimension for follistatin FST315, showing two populated conformational states labelled open and closed.
Conformer ensemble of follistatin protein scored by radius of gyration (Rg, how compact the molecule is) and maximum dimension (Dmax, its longest end-to-end distance): the population splits into an open and a closed state, and all three isoforms show the same two-conformation behaviour.
BSc (Hons) Biochemistry, First Class · Newcastle University2015 – 2018 · top of the class in all three years · five academic awards

Cyclin druggability assessed by fragment binding

Finding

The 2.0 Å CycA2 structure showed a DMSO molecule bound in the pocket with the highest druggability score.

Final-year project on structure-based drug discovery at the Northern Institute for Cancer Research: cell-cycle and transcriptional cyclins expressed, purified and screened for crystallisation; CycA2 crystals soaked with FragLite fragments and analysed by X-ray crystallography, alongside computational druggability assessment and docking. The 2.0 Å CycA2 structure showed a DMSO molecule bound in the pocket with the highest druggability score.

  • Amgen Scholar at the University of Cambridge (2017) on TGF-β structural biology, later the foundation of the PhD; NCL+ Advanced Award in Research.
  • Earlier placements in structural biology of meiosis, bacterial carbohydrate metabolism and protein-purification scale-up.
DataX-ray crystallography dataX-ray crystallographyfragment-based drug discoveryprotein purificationdruggability & dockingmass spectrometry
Crystal structure of cyclin A2 with druggable pockets coloured, and an enlarged view of the top-scoring pocket with a DMSO molecule bound between His233 and Ile311.
CycA2 crystal structure at 2.0 Å with predicted druggable pockets; the enlargement shows the top-scoring pocket with DMSO bound by His233 and Ile311.
Medical training · Vilnius University2012 – 2014

Two years of medicine before moving to research

The preclinical half of a medical degree: how the body is built and how it works, from anatomy and physiology to genetics, microbiology, research methodology with biostatistics, and the first clinical training in examining patients.

anatomy & physiologygeneticsmicrobiologybiostatisticsclinical skillsprenatal screening
Research exchange · Comenius University, Bratislava · summer 2014
blood sample cell-free DNA fetal ≈ 10 % reads per chromosome expected 123131821X Z ≫ 3
Non-invasive prenatal screening: fetal DNA fragments circulate in the mother's blood; low-coverage sequencing and a read count per chromosome flag a trisomy as an excess on chromosome 13, 18 or 21.
Ventures

Two deep-tech startups I co-founded and led

Co-founder & CEO2025 – 2026 · Paris

Repliqease

Multimodal AI that makes large volumes of raw news footage searchable within minutes, with a proof of concept delivered to one of the world's largest news agencies.

Co-founder & CEO2022 – 2025 · Cambridge

BravelyCultured

A VC-backed microbial biotechnology company harnessing novel marine microorganisms to produce proteins and biosurfactants that replace petroleum- and animal-derived ingredients. We raised dilutive and non-dilutive funding, established a laboratory facility and a team, coordinated microbial sample collection across multiple geographies (UK, Korea and French Polynesia), collaborated with companies and organisations on joint research projects, and licensed our microbial strains.

£490Kdilutive and non-dilutive funding
7partners and letters of intent
5people team and a private lab facility
8international conferences
Marine microbial samplescollected across three geographiesSequencing pipelinestrains identified and deduplicatedScreeningfor protein, pigment and biosurfactant productionIngredientreplaces petroleum- and animal-derived ingredients
Bioinformatics · built for BravelyCulturedPrivate repository · 2022 – 2025

Deciding which microbes to keep: sequence identification of a marine biobank

Every microbe we isolated was sent for marker-gene sequencing, and the result shaped what happened to it in the lab. I wrote the pipeline that turns each batch of raw reads into an identified, quality-checked collection: it assembles the reads, matches them against the NCBI database, flags failed reactions for re-sequencing, detects duplicate strains and places every isolate on a family tree. Knowing the species or genus told us what an isolate was likely to be useful for; together with what we saw in the lab (growth on plates and in liquid culture, protein gels, surfactant tests) it decided which strains to keep, drop or take forward.

Also in the repoA genome-region finder that locates where a marker sequence sits in an unannotated reference genome by cross-correlation, used to pull outgroup sequences out of published assemblies.
Datamarker-gene sequencing readsBiopythonBLAST (NCBI)MAFFT · trimAl · IQ-TREEETE3pandas · NumPyJupyter
40%of isolates below 99% identity to any known species
17%candidate novel species or genera (below 97% identity)
Re-sequence listbuilt automatically from failed reactions in every batch
Duplicatesof the same strain caught across sequencing orders
Family tree of the fungal isolates in the biobankcolour: sequence identity to the closest known speciesRhizopusMucorAmbomucorThelebolaceae sp.LeptodophoraPenicilliumPenicilliumPenicilliumAspergillusCladosporiumRamulariaConiothyriumParaphaeosphaeriaPhomaAscochytaPhaeosphaeriopsisNeophaeosphaeriaBipolarisAlternariaEmbellisiaPleosporaceae sp.AmphisphaeriaPestalotiopsisTruncatellaAmphisphaeriaChaetomiumNeurosporaFusariumAkanthomycesTrichodermaFungal sp.ColletotrichumCorollosporaTolypocladiumCordycepsMyrotheciumBeauveriaEmericellopsisAcremonium< 95 %95–97 %97–99 %99–100 %triangle = several isolates of one genus · rooted on Mucoromycota
Maximum-likelihood tree (MAFFT, trimAl, IQ-TREE) of the fungal isolates in the biobank, coloured by how close each is to any known species.
Code is private (company data).
Contact

Currently based in Paris. Happy to talk about any of the work on this page.